Overall I think this is a positive review – far more so than some previous reviews, and certainly hugely ambitious in its scope. I’d argue that in terms of shifting the UK formally into an East of Suez posture (rather than just an operational commitment), it essentially sounds the death knell for the reviews of the mid-1960s. Given they cost us our carrier fleet, and today we saw a reaffirmation of the carrier fleet, the UK has come full circle after 50 years.
My general thoughts though are beneath a series of headlines.
Ship Numbers
The big one in many respects, the commitment to 19 escorts is great news for the RN, although its hard to see how many will be active / training / reserve. There was no comment on their readiness state. Similarly, no comment on the likely pattern of deployments or their anticipated employment.
The move to 8 T26 hulls has long been predicted by many observers, and perhaps sums up the lack of focus on what a GP hull is supposed to do. Arguably though the move to kicking the replacement into the very long grass (2030s) is going to ensure that the RN will have to soldier on with three types of escorts in the interim, and no certainty of one for one replacement.
The problem for the new light escort frigate is firstly ensuring its entering service in the timeframes other nations want to buy it. It feels like it may be a few years too late for both Australia and Canada, and its hard to think of other nations that want it in sufficient numbers to reduce costs. Secondly, politically the likely order point for these hulls won’t be until the mid-2020s – in other words two elections time. Committing the RN of the 2030s to a larger escort fleet is fine today, because whoever makes this promise is doing so knowing that three elections and three SDRs will happen in the interim and absolves their responsibility here.
My strictly personal view is that I’d love to see these ships in service, but given the timescales involved, it’s hard to see it happening. The other challenge is that the delay in the T26 programme implied (e.g. it had previously seemed that there would be one ship a year from 2021 – 2034, but now we’re seeing 8 between now and 2030) means that they will be coming on stream at just the point that a T45 replacement is needed…
So, fingers crossed it happens, but let’s hope that what doesn’t happen is that the last 5 escorts become the T45 replacement programme in due course. It also means that given the limits of UK shipbuilding now (essentially one yard, one ship every 12-18 months), the T45s will be VERY old by the time their likely successors arrives 20 plus years from now. But we will have managed to keep the design capability going in the interim, which is the critical point.
More Rivers, Less Racecourses
Good news that two more OPVs are to be ordered, giving the UK a fleet of between 5-6 River class over the next 10 years. These are very capable vessels, and seem likely to keep the yards going while the CVF winds down and the T26 winds up more slowly than previously anticipated.
But, it seems from the graphics that only 12 MCMVs (down from 15) will be in service in 2025, meaning a 20% cut to the force. Add to this the reality that work on the replacement capability (not platform) is slower than before, and you realise the MCMV force will be approaching its 45th – 50th birthday for some hulls soon. While their GRP nature for the Hunts means they can carry on infinitely, at some stage new hulls will be needed.
Meanwhile the survey fleet continues with no sign of any replacements and those ships will be over 20 years old in 2025 – again, a replacement package will be required.
Good news for the RFA?
Great news that the 3 solid support ships has been confirmed – these are utterly essential for the RN to get into service ASAP (the two older Forts date back in origin to the early 1970s), and this will give the RN a genuinely world class replenishment fleet by the mid 2020s able to sustain carrier strike. There is a slight concern that both Diligence and Argus replacements are not mentioned yet – hopefully an oversight.
Defence Engagement
What is also interesting is the statement that there will be British Defence Staffs created in Africa, Middle East and Asia-Pacific. This represents a throwback to the 1960s, and is an interesting and very physical commitment to these regions. There will be interest in how they are going to work, who they report to, and how you manage the defence engagement relationship (e.g. does the DA answer to BDS, JFC or IPP?). But, as a sign of commitment this is a great move, and also one that helps show we are back in the global game (although one hopes this is underpinned by exercises and deployments).
Deployment Levels
The headline figure is the 50k deployed (e.g. DESERT STORM or TELIC 1). But, what is perhaps more interesting is the subtle cut to just one enduring operation and supporting a multitude of smaller ones – the language suggests that there is actually a lower likely level of deployment overall in future, but held against contingency for ‘the big one’ if required.
Real Estate Sales
A large chunk of the defence estate is going to go – this will prove emotional and I suspect very difficult to deal with. There will need to be real change, and massive upgrade and infrastructure programme to make use of the remaining estate. Stand by for lots of headlines about how national defence is threatened when Army location X shuts…
RAF Growth
The RAF seems to have done extremely well from the review, and its clear that there will be a significant enhancement in capability to make it happen. The retention of the C130 fleet, the growth of the Typhoon force and ongoing purchase of the JSF is a positive vision of the future.
Delivering 7sqns of Typhoon is going to be a challenge I suspect as manpower isn’t growing that much, but it does highlight how more use can be made of the spares fleet. However, it will be interesting to look at how much fatigue life is left in 20 years’ time on the force, which will have been in service for nearly 40 years by the time it hits OSD.
The best news of the day is the P8 buy, which is without doubt going to make a gamechanging difference for the UK and address a sorely felt need. This cannot come too quickly.
Manpower
Ominious signs emerging of manpower issues – firstly the nearly 30% cut in real terms to the civil service – in 2000 there were over 120000 civil servants and by 2020 there will be barely 41000 – that’s an enormous reduction to go through in a very short time (80000 posts). Given the demograpghics of the workforce, the challenge will have to be regenerating this group and sustaining morale for an organisation which has consistently taken heavier cuts than any of the three services combined since 1998.
Additionally there is clearly turbulent water ahead over pay, conditions and allowances for ordinary servicemen. No one likes seeing reductions in their take home wage, and at a time when retention is critical, it will be a challenge to keep people motivated if they perceive they aren’t getting a fair wage. This area is likely to be one where much media attention will fall over time, as the perception of a hard done by Tommy is played up to the maximum by campaign groups.
Overall view
Given how bad it could have been, and given how much was at stake, this wasn’t a bad review. Its perhaps most important to look at it not as a shopping list, but as a really clear affirmation of how the UK see’s its place in the world today. From this perspective it’s a really informative and good read, setting out clearly what the UK will achieve, what it will aspire to do and how it will do it across all possible levers of power.
If properly implemented and supported, the potential to deliver a genuine increase in UK capability and influence is there, but it needs to be funded properly. Ensuring the efficiencies predicted that will fund the shopping list materialise is key, as is working out what to do if costs rise or savings don’t appear. On paper though, as a legacy defence review, it will likely be seen as the perfect riposte to the 1966 review, firmly restating the UK as a global power, aiming to stride a global stage.
Fair enough.
