Is Ukraine about to get messy?

[Therapist]

I'd like to believe you are right and I have some hope but sadly Mad Vlad lacks logic, reason, patience or compassion for his fellow man. He's been badly briefed, it's all gone far to slowly for him and now he's stuck. To go backwards and go home is to lose face to go forwards is to lose even more men in a street by street quamire of misery that could last weeks if not months. The more he gets hemmed in financially and militarily the more chance there is of him doing something truely horrible and off the conventional war script. Just remember when you blot, bang, rub do it in the correct sequence.

It's definitely going wrong when you're losing three 2* generals in little more than a fortnight. I think it's obvious he's massively underestimated the resistance the Ukrainians would put up but also the severity of the sanctions the rest of the world would take against him.
With his current losses financially and military, especially the war materiel he's losing to farmers I agree it's likely that he is going to have to do something that gives him and edge.

And don't forget to cross your braces on the suit or the whole thing doesn't work...

 

[4mastacker]

According to the FT, Vlad has asked China for help.

Linky

 

[busby1971]

Can’t see China giving any kit, they might give assistance that can’t be traced back to them but I expect they will take advantage of Russia’s financial position which should funnel some money their way.

At this moment in time Russia just doesn’t have the capacity, capability and will to win this war, it’s very easy to attack a target, it’s very hard to conquer and hold an entire country, especially when you’ve done everything possible to piss off the natives.

 

[Rugby-Jock-Lad]

Can’t see China giving any kit, they might give assistance that can’t be traced back to them but I expect they will take advantage of Russia’s financial position which should funnel some money their way.

At this moment in time Russia just doesn’t have the capacity, capability and will to win this war, it’s very easy to attack a target, it’s very hard to conquer and hold an entire country, especially when you’ve done everything possible to piss off the natives.

Yes...but some people never learn from history!!! We and the Yanks should know ref: Iraq and Afghan. And the Yanks forgot the effects that their Vietnam endeavours had...

 

[Oldstacker]

It's definitely going wrong when you're losing three 2* generals in little more than a fortnight.

I read somewhere, a long time ago, that Field Marshall Irwin Rommel lost, to enemy action, more Generals under his command in N Africa than the entire German army lost in WW1... He insisted that they be 'up front' where they could know & hear what was going on rather than being back behind the lines playing with numbers & flags on the table.....

Speaking of which, has anyone seen any Hitler parody videos featuring Mad Vlad yet?

 

[vim_fuego]

I'm 80% convinced there is a wider war coming. Putin cannot back down or he'll be out and he needs to deliver on his ambition to reform the USSR. We are trying to p1ss the Russian 'non-Putin' people off by making food and sundry costs go up whilst removing the luxuries and staples they have all grown to expect. Trouble is, if they protest, they get arrested and potentially 'offed' in the process. Putin is surrounded by his close allies and goons who will, just like during the cold war, experience no shortages of anything.

At some point a weapon is going to stray across a line on the map that leaves NATO/US no choice but to like for like retaliate and from then on it gets scary.

My 20% of doubt comes from the hope that someone in his inner circle loses their nerve and removes him. What's the point in owning the Ukraine and bearing down on other ex-bloc real estate if your people are staving and permanently on the edge of revolt and your bank accounts are less than empty.

 

[Oldstacker]

I'm 80% convinced there is a wider war coming. Putin cannot back down or he'll be out and he needs to deliver on his ambition to reform the USSR. We are trying to p1ss the Russian 'non-Putin' people off by making food and sundry costs go up whilst removing the luxuries and staples they have all grown to expect. Trouble is, if they protest, they get arrested and potentially 'offed' in the process. Putin is surrounded by his close allies and goons who will, just like during the cold war, experience no shortages of anything.

At some point a weapon is going to stray across a line on the map that leaves NATO/US no choice but to like for like retaliate and from then on it gets scary.

My 20% of doubt comes from the hope that someone in his inner circle loses their nerve and removes him. What's the point in owning the Ukraine and bearing down on other ex-bloc real estate if your people are staving and permanently on the edge of revolt and your bank accounts are less than empty.

I wish i could disagree with that assessment.... My only additional thought is that the internal dissent (probably at all levels) is likely to be at it's highest at the moment with a far greater number of westernised/liberal Russians around than was the case when the last Cold War ended. Consequently, the possibility of someone taking him down rather than reverting to the '70's is, I think, higher. Although his internal propaganda machine seems to be getting into its stride now.

 

[Tin basher]

What's the point in owning the Ukraine and bearing down on other ex-bloc real estate if your people are staving and permanently on the edge of revolt and your bank accounts are less than empty.

With Mad Vlad's ego anything that expands the lands of Mother Russia is justified, a few starving millions of his fellow citizens won't cost him a wink of sleep. He's stuck, go home lose face, go forward and the war expands beyond his capability to control it. I'm not at 80% for a shooting war but certainly in recent days I've swung past 50% bleak times ahead for humanity and Putin doesn't give a fig who becomes collateral to his adventures.

 

[Tin basher]

Is perhaps Vlad's biggest mistake to engage in a 20th Century war in the 21st Century. He is using large numbers of troops, iron bombs, shells and missiles all very old school tactics and familiar to the many nations involved in WW1 and WW2. In a time when the tactics of squeezing the enemy finances or disrupting their energy supplies or battling them in the murky underworld of cyber, an aggressor has the capacity to have a quicker and far more damaging effect on a nation than an infantry charge, a barrage of artillery or a stick of bombs can ever acheive.

 

[Oldstacker]

Is perhaps Vlad's biggest mistake to engage in a 20th Century war in the 21st Century. He is using large numbers of troops, iron bombs, shells and missiles all very old school tactics and familiar to the many nations involved in WW1 and WW2. In a time when the tactics of squeezing the enemy finances or disrupting their energy supplies or battling them in the murky underworld of cyber, an aggressor has the capacity to have a quicker and far more damaging effect on a nation than an infantry charge, a barrage of artillery or a stick of bombs can ever acheive.

Only if the target has a high degree of dependency on such things for normal daily life. I don't know where Ukraine stands in the table of cyber/technology dependency but i suspect not as high as most of the EU/NATO nations so maybe iron bombs etc was right (or thought to be right) for an invasion of 'liberation' there whereas the tactics could change if the west was to be the target.

 

[ERT]

JDP 0-01 covers what has been undertaken so far...

D - Diplomatic
I - Information/Influence
M - Military
E - Economic

If you looked at that, we've already started 3 (DIE).

Just the M left to go.

 

[busby1971]

A couple of recent radio discussions over the past couple of days, one from a Russian, not pro Putin, who made the observation that closing down McDonalds and Zara won’t be felt by the large proportion of the Russian population, those who still live out in the sticks and are already living close to the poverty line.

Another from today, had a China expert on, they said that a high up, well connected, Senior representative has made a public statement that very strongly implied that China is turning its back on Putins war in an attempt to get back in the good books with the west.

 

[Rugby-Jock-Lad]

SM made a good point a few weeks ago..If China decides to go to Taiwan then they have been shown what will happen and the Chinese don't want that especially since the West owes them lots of money. And a financial FREEZE would scupper that!!!!!

 

[Oldstacker]

Ukraine isn't enough..... now he wants Alaska... The madness goes on....

 

[Rugby-Jock-Lad]

Ukraine isn't enough..... now he wants Alaska... The madness goes on....

Getting desparate to deflect the NON-SHOCK and NON-AWE in Ukraine. They're going to be bogged down there for years. Ukrainians aint giving up without a fight!!!! Always said that by weight of numbers they will win!!! Holding it in a guerilla war.........

 

[busby1971]

This was the China article I mentioned, Russia will incredibly isolated soon.

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China's Choice | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council.

uscnpm.org

 

[Oldstacker]

China will always play their own game to suit themselves. They want to go into Taiwan so having Russia disrupt and distract the west is good for China. On the other hand, China won't be keen to see a resurgent Russian empire on their northern borders or more active in the Pacific. I suspect China will, eventually, try to be a peacemaker and garner advantages to themselves out of that.

 

[Rigga]

Putins psyche is in tatters. Before the invasion he sacked about 1,000 of his staff because he became afraid of being poisoned. He is paranoid beyond belief and has had health issues leading to the Long Table pictures. I would hope that the golden bullet isn’t far away.

 

[Spearmint]

The fact that the position of the Orsk was revealed by Russian State Media really does bring credence to the phrase....'Loose Lips Sink Ships'

Ukraine war: Huge Russian ship destroyed by Kyiv's navy

Flames and thick black smoke was seen rising over the port of Berdyansk, in southern Ukraine, as Kyiv's navy said it had destroyed a Russian ship using the dock to unload tanks.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Tin basher]

In the dark days of the cold war and RAFG the Russian military capability was perceived as deeply worrying, many many exercises over many years where conducted to counter the supposed threat. They had apparently the potential, despite the Harriers, to roll through western Europe in short order. The Russian performance in the Ukraine war, so far, shows a different beast. Apparently tactically inept, badly trained, badly led and under supplied troops faltering in acheiving their objectives. All this coupled with a belief that they would win quickly and be welcomed by cheering crowds throwing flowers at the "liberating" troops. I know we only read the western side of the story but even given that pinch of salt it appears that Ivan has badly miscalculated. The showing of ship placement on state TV and it's part in the plan just highlights the seeming arrogance of the Russian forces.