Is Ukraine about to get messy?

[Past Engineering]

I don't recall seeing anything reference Russia's previous outing against Finland, but it seems that history is repeating itself as far as the initial Russian offensive in both instances:

https://www.britannica.com/event/Russo-Finnish-War

 

[Oldstacker]

I think perhaps more worrying for me is the prospect that Putin may just be insane enough to press the big red button and pre-emtively nuke somewhere. He and some of his mouthpieces have certainly hinted at the possibility. I think the risks are probably higher now than when i first joined up in the cold war era of the '70's.

If he chose a UK built up area (London, Birmingham or Leeds, say) I am not sure how either the general UK population or the wider European community would react.

As a general population it is so long since war directly affected most people in this country that I fear there would be more hand-wringing and pleas for 'someone' to do 'something' than knuckling down to survival, recovery and reaction.

Anyone else have thoughts?

 

[Past Engineering]

I have wondered about the state of his nuclear arsenal, especially when it is apparent that his other equipment being used and lost in Ukraine is not in a particularly wonderful state of repair and the lack of serviceable item back at depots in Russia that allegedly have been robbed to bits and not maintained, I suspect that they are more likely to cause the Russians more self inflicted damage if they tried to fire anything vaguely usable, also, unlike before, there are anti-missile missiles in the west that I would hazard a guess are serviceable well maintained and would work to stop anything that was successfully launched from getting anywhere near the UK/USA. The west combined has a greater arsenal than Russia who would not be able to destroy enough of the west to stop Russia being decimated.

Also, Putin would need to have the others in the firing chain of command so scared of him that they would support what would be a suicide decision for them to fire anything at a NATO country, and no matter how insane they appear to be I don't think in reality they would commit to having Russia destroyed just because Putin made a big mistake in invading Ukraine and like all bullies does not like being stood up to.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-ballistic_missile

 

[4mastacker]

Let's hope he hasn't read Hackett's book where some instant sunshine was exploded over the North Sea at the start of the conflict. If he done, that would it be sufficient to trigger an Article 5 response, especially if the strike was over international waters?

 

[Oldstacker]

Let's hope he hasn't read Hackett's book where some instant sunshine was exploded over the North Sea at the start of the conflict. If he done, that would it be sufficient to trigger an Article 5 response, especially if the strike was over international waters?

I hope he hasn't read it - I live on the east coast...... More seriously, any use of nukes in international waters where the nearest coastline is NATO's would, I assume, be treated as an attack on NATO since any such device would inevitably cause damage via tidal waves and fallout.

If i were the Captain of a V class submarine at the moment I would be double checking that I understood all my classified orders absolutely 100%.

 

[Tin basher]

If he chose a UK built up area (London, Birmingham or Leeds, say) I am not sure how either the general UK population or the wider European community would react.

A nuke hitting London or Birmingham the reaction from the populous would probably be shock and anger. Leeds Meh!

 

[Spearmint]

If i were the Captain of a V class submarine at the moment I would be double checking that I understood all my classified orders absolutely 100%.

Those boys don't drop their guard period, there's a very good reason those boys get paid what they do.

 

[Rigga]

Vlad the bad is likely (if ever) in my opinion, to use a tickling nuke in Ukraine after checking the current wind direction, of course.
As soon as he does, wherever it lands, the Russian state will probably be completely ostracised from international trade* and China will be threatened against assisting Russia in any way or they too will feel the western trade pressures.
(*except for Germany of course)

 

[busby1971]

Seems a few attacks are starting to occur in Russia, having to have a defensive contingent of forces could reduce those available to do the attacking.

Not going well for the second largest military in the world is it.

 

[Tin basher]

Not going well for the second largest military in the world is it.

Yes this conflict seems to highlight quite nicely the capability difference between having poor leadership over many thousands of men in uniform and having a few thousand properly trained and organised troops

 

[Rugby-Jock-Lad]

....with force multipliers like good up-to-date Intel and International funding and equipment backing!!!

 

[Tin basher]

Reading various UK news outlets it's a modern miracle Mad Vlad is even alive if all the journos are right (Really). He apparently is suffering from varying degrees of Parkinsons disease, throat cancer, thyroid cancer, dementia, paranoia and small man syndrome. He'll be lucky to make it to the weekend poor chap.

 

[Rugby-Jock-Lad]

Reading various UK news outlets it's a modern miracle Mad Vlad is even alive if all the journos are right (Really). He apparently is suffering from varying degrees of Parkinsons disease, throat cancer, thyroid cancer, dementia, paranoia and small man syndrome. He'll be lucky to make it to the weekend poor chap.

Unfortunately the Devil looks after his own. And he's doing the Devil's work right now...................

 

[Cat Techie]

Let's hope he hasn't read Hackett's book where some instant sunshine was exploded over the North Sea at the start of the conflict. If he done, that would it be sufficient to trigger an Article 5 response, especially if the strike was over international waters?

Hackett's book was a nuke strike against Birmingham I believe. NATO response was to destroy Minsk.

 

[4mastacker]

Hackett's book was a nuke strike against Birmingham I believe. NATO response was to destroy Minsk.

I remember the bit about improving Brum, but I thought an earlier detonation was an air-burst high over The Wash in order to knock-out comms through the EMP effect. Might have got me books mixed up though.

 

[Oldstacker]

It's a long time since i read it but i think it's in one of my book boxes. Time to fish it out I think (although I've got a book on Dieppe to finish and another on the St Nazaire raid from the library waiting to be started).

 

[norfolkred1]

Hackett's book was a nuke strike against Birmingham I believe. NATO response was to destroy Minsk.

Though the NATO response would be to take out Wolverhampton.

 

[Talk Wrench]

There's unconfirmed reports that up to 50 Russian high rankers and up to 31000 Russian troops have died so far in Putin's "Special Operations"


How many more troops is Putin prepared to lose?

 

[Cat Techie]

There's unconfirmed reports that up to 50 Russian high rankers and up to 31000 Russian troops have died so far in Putin's "Special Operations"


How many more troops is Putin prepared to lose?

As many as it takes.

 

[Oldstacker]

There's unconfirmed reports that up to 50 Russian high rankers and up to 31000 Russian troops have died so far in Putin's "Special Operations"


How many more troops is Putin prepared to lose?

As Cat Techie suggests, Mad Vlad will have no limits to tolerable losses. The question is better put as "how many losses are the senior commanders and general population prepared to tolerate?". Can the Kremlin propaganda machine keep hiding the truth of the situation?