What's the odds?

[Late & Tired]

Well, alongside all the major upheavals Nationally and Internationally, the latest CPI rate for April 2022 was recently released, noteably at 9%. There has been a continuous monthly increase since the last 3.1% Pension award in April 2022. Conscious of the fact that things now cost much more AND it's a full 12 months increase before any further award, who thinks the Govt will honour any fixed CPI rate value shown for September 2022 to be reflected IN FULL in the April 2023 award, or be reduced with any further triple-lock "balancing act"...?
Academia and people on all sides believe the rise will continue, but can we afford to make the Pensions black hole bigger?

 

[Rugby-Jock-Lad]

Hmmmm... Would be nice wouldn't it? Election bribe by not wanting to upset those who get you elected and kick the can down the road? Or people now need to start realising that the Gubment and tax payer can't solve everybodies issues including heating, lighting, electricity, food, care etc. Problem is the hypocrisy that exists in Parliament with regards to subsidised bars and annual pay increases. Personally, and although unlikeable and unthinkable, we are ALL (including MPs) going to have to take a literal "kick-in-the-teeth" when we are down and tighten our belts and that will include reigning in pension increases. Unpopular but......

PS...Also easier to say I know since on a guaranteed RAF 22 Pension with less worries than most!!! BUT....

 

[busby1971]

Government receipts are very healthy at the moment so there’s no need to not deliver on a cost of living rise to the state pension.

 

[Tin basher]

I reckon we would have to be, as a country, in very tight financial spot to alter the way pensions are calculated. I don't see how the government can't pay the due rise in the same way as always. Septembers rate = April's rise. It would surely be electoral suicide to mess with pensions. The grey vote is important and higher percentage of oldies vote than youngsters.

"Younger people are generally less likely to vote than older generations. Despite talk of a so called ‘youthquake’ in recent years, Ipsos Mori showed that voter turnout in 2019 was only 47% amongst those aged 18-24 compared to 74% amongst those aged over 65."

To not stick to the tried and trusted method risks losing votes both from pension recipients and young voters who become irate because some one has messed with their granny and grandads pension.

 

[Rigga]

Nah! Well get 2 or 3% if that. ‘They’ are saving up the dosh so that they can buy the vote in a couple of years time….Slimy Tony n Gordy did the same for their third term….

 

[busby1971]

Nah! Well get 2 or 3% if that. ‘They’ are saving up the dosh so that they can buy the vote in a couple of years time….Slimy Tony n Gordy did the same for their third term….

We’re only 2 years to the next GE, by this time next year the great giveaway should be kicking in.

 

[muttywhitedog]

These slimy barstewards do have form - last year the triple lock bribe to the old folk became a double lock when average earnings was outstripping inflation and the 2.5% minimum guarantee. By reneging on a manifesto pledge and law, not only does it save the Govt £3Bn this year, but most of that every year thereafter until the OAPs die off as that £3Bn will never find its way to those it was promised.

That said, if April 2023 doesnt result in a pension rise commensurate with Sep 22's CPI, then the grey backlash will be massive come election day. I could even see the tories ending up in 3rd place such would be the anger in the shires.

 

[Deltaitem]

The thought of Johnson, or anyone in his government, actually being straight with the electorate is laughable. Currently Redwood is spouting his sh*te on breakfast tv. To slightly mis-quote Westley from the Princess Bride, 'and what good is that, the word of a tory?'

 

[busby1971]

These slimy barstewards do have form - last year the triple lock bribe to the old folk became a double lock when average earnings was outstripping inflation and the 2.5% minimum guarantee. By reneging on a manifesto pledge and law, not only does it save the Govt £3Bn this year, but most of that every year thereafter until the OAPs die off as that £3Bn will never find its way to those it was promised.

That said, if April 2023 doesnt result in a pension rise commensurate with Sep 22's CPI, then the grey backlash will be massive come election day. I could even see the tories ending up in 3rd place such would be the anger in the shires.

That £3bn, if that is the saving, because there will be cost impacts higher up the wealth scale, is baked in for all pensioners now and pensioners in the future too until some restorative action is taken in the future, which I doubt either of the main parties will do.

Saying that I still think it was a fair thing to do because, in my mind, the salary rises that it was going to reflect were higher than expected die to a lot of no payrises the year before.

 

[4everAD]

So retire now get pension paid to receive 10% uplift when I hit 55, tempting. (Let alone the other 3 years increases).

 

[busby1971]

So retire now get pension paid to receive 10% uplift when I hit 55, tempting. (Let alone the other 3 years increases).

It doesn’t matter when you retire, when you decided to do so you will start getting paid whatever the state pension rate is as that time based on your entitlement and any uplift if you defer by a year or more.

 

[4everAD]

It doesn’t matter when you retire, when you decided to do so you will start getting paid whatever the state pension rate is as that time based on your entitlement and any uplift if you defer by a year or more.

Sorry I was talking about my military pension, if I didn't retire then I potentially miss out on a 10% uplift from just one year (bearing in mind the pay rise we get this year maybe as low as 2%).

 

[busby1971]

Now theres a different story, and its not as simple as you and I think.

IIRC the RBL had a workout sheet that worked out the best time in the year to retire and another showing how it impacts overtime, I also think it showed how leaving at a time of high inflation and low wage increases really drags down your pension over time.

(Might have been the FPS rather than TRBL

 

[Late & Tired]

Well, the CPI rate for July 22 has just been announced today, at 10.1%.
Whilst the continuous increasing rate bodes well for the next April Pension increase, we are currently incurring these huge increases today! As yet, I still await any studious or informative response into whether the Armed Forces WILL get the full September 22 CPI rate next April or not? is there a MoD cap to how much % CAN be awarded? As a further point of note, the official Office of National Statistics page states that a current study is underway to review the CPI rate based on the affect of the 'Energy Bills Support Scheme' allowance. I'm guessing the Govt may look to use this to their benefit in terms of the September figure (to be released in October): Very happy to be proved wrong on this point...

 

[busby1971]

Doesn’t the energy support payment start in October? My estimated bill is due to rise by over 100% at the same time so the £60 payments won’t take out the full rise. (Just fixed at a stupid rate in fear of Jan 23s expected rise, although not locked in if things look better)

The eat out deal reduced inflation, and why it went up a year later, so if our bills are £400 less then it seems fair to include it in any inflation measure.

 

[Rigga]

Luckily, we’re on a fixed contract til Oct 2023!!

 

[Late & Tired]

Just a quick and timely bump on this post. The September figure for CPI was 10.1% and it still generates the question of whether it will be honoured for Pensioners (despite much recent whining , moaning and finger pointing from the yoof). Today sees the October CPI rate even higher at 11.1%, it's going to be a very, very interesting release by Chancellor Jeremy tomorrow in terms of taxes and payments. I sincerely hope the Pensioners are not hit by any Govt actions and, if possible the 10.1% is paid to MoD Pensions next April (although I wouldn't be surprised in any targeted 'deviations' by the Govt; - see the initial post).

 

[Tin basher]

Messing with pensions I don't think so!! other tweaks will most certainly have to be found. Even suggesting abandoning the triple lock would be a vote loser which ever party even thought about it. In my glass half full world I'm looking forward to having to calculate just how many extra beer chits 10% a month is.

Rishi Sunak hints he will not abandon triple lock pensions pledge | ITV News

Speaking ahead of Thursday's Autumn Statement, Mr Sunak said he understood the challenges of pensioners who were "always at the forefront of my mind". | ITV National News

www.itv.com

 

[Cornish_Pikey]

How big a jump does one normally get at age 55?

 

[Tin basher]

How big a jump does one normally get at age 55?

In simple terms its complicated. Many variables are at play but.. assuming you left at 45 and commuted as much cash as possible then your pension would remain unchanged for the 10 years until you reach 55. At 55 your pension would increase to what it would have been if you hadn't commuted anything at all. In addition it would rise by the yearly rate of inflation on a compound scale. So 10 years of static pension would rise on your 55th birthday in two different ways. The actual amount of increase depends on how the rate of inflation behaves over that hypothtetical 10 year period and how much you commuted in the first place. Allegedly